For years, anyone who makes their living on the water in Alaska – or depends on what comes off those boats – has felt like they’re fighting with one hand tied behind their back. Sky-high fuel bills, labor costs that jumped 50% in two years, crab grounds that went quiet almost overnight, and Russian pollock flooding the world market at prices no American boat could touch. Revenues in the state’s fisheries dropped a stomach-punching $1.8 billion in 2022 and 2023, and a lot of good men wondered if the glory days were gone for good.
But something shifted this year, and a lot of seasoned hands are allowing themselves a careful smile. At the Pacific Marine Expo in Seattle last week, some of the heaviest hitters in the North Pacific sat on a panel called “The Future of North Pacific Fisheries.” They didn’t sugar-coat the pain, but by the time the coffee cups were empty, the mood in the room wasn’t defeat. It was closer to guarded hope.
John Kurland, the man who runs NOAA’s Alaska region, laid the numbers bare. “My agency produced a snapshot report last year… confirming declining revenue and prices and increasing costs with declining margins,” he said. He pointed to brutal global competition, lingering hangover from Covid, and a warming ocean that’s rearranging where the fish – and the crab – actually live these days.
Out in the Bering Sea, the king crab, snow crab, and Bairdi Tanner crab fisheries that used to put million-dollar smiles on deckhands’ faces basically collapsed. Jamie Goen, who heads up the Alaska Bering Sea Crabbers, remembered when the fleet ran 55 vessels strong. “In recent years, our fisheries collapsed… so we were down to 35 active vessels,” she said. “We lost $250 million a year with the closure of our fisheries, but we are bouncing back.”
Even pollock – the bread-and-butter fish that makes up most of the fish sticks and fast-food fillets in America – has been taking punches. Craig Morris, CEO of the Genuine Alaska Pollock Producers, didn’t mince words about the Russians. “Our competitors in Russia like to use our name on the global market,” he said. “Russia has become very aggressive… sell it at a very low price. We’ve seen very challenging global market conditions for our fish for the last couple of years.”
On shore, the processors have been bleeding money too. Julie Decker, president of the Pacific Seafood Processors Association, told the room that labor costs are the killer. A federal rule ties H-2B guest-worker visas to a “prevailing wage” set in Washington, D.C. “In two years, it went up 50% between 2021 and 2023,” she said, “and that’s really difficult when it’s one of your largest costs to absorb.” Throw in diesel that costs twice what it does in the Lower 48, and a lot of plants have been running on fumes.
So where’s the light at the end of this long, dark tunnel?
A big piece of it walked into the room back in April when President Trump signed the Restoring American Seafood Competitiveness executive order. For the first time in years, guys who’ve spent decades filling out federal paperwork actually feel like someone in Washington is listening.
Kurland explained what NOAA is doing with the new marching orders: “Things like considering regulatory changes to simplify and streamline regulations… increase flexibility where possible, looking at advanced technologies to improve data collection… and updating national seafood trade strategy to try to address global trade dynamics and level the playing field.”
In plain English: cut the red tape where it makes sense, get better numbers faster so managers aren’t always a year behind the fish, and finally do something about countries that can dump cheap seafood because they don’t play by the same rules.
Kurland was careful to add that nobody’s talking about throwing sustainability out the window. “It doesn’t mean taking all the rules away and fishing like crazy,” he said. “It’s all about maintaining that framework for sustainable fisheries, but trying to streamline things and improve things where we can.”
Craig Morris called the executive order flat-out “really important” for the pollock fleet. “We operate in the global marketplace,” he said. “And when we have to compete with countries who use forced labor, who are racking up what we view as unsustainable levels of debt, who have state-sponsored innovation initiatives to modernize their fleets, it’s hard for us to compete.”
Even Julie Decker, who has spent years knocking on doors in D.C., sounded encouraged. She pointed out that several fixes that started under Biden – things like cracking down on illegal fishing and mislabeling – are still moving forward under Trump. “It just goes to show that people recognize the value of the domestic seafood industry,” she said, “and they’re willing to look deep into how they can help us and level the playing field for trade.”
Walking out of that breakfast in Seattle, a lot of weathered captains and plant managers felt something they haven’t felt in a long time: momentum. The crab fleet is rigging boats again. Pollock prices are actually decent this year. And for once, the paperwork might get a little thinner instead of thicker.
Alaska still catches roughly 60% of all the seafood Americans eat. The ocean is still changing, labor is still expensive, and the Russians aren’t going anywhere. But after a decade of getting kicked around, the toughest fishermen in the country finally have a president and an administration that seem to remember whose backs built this industry in the first place.
The boats are heading back out. And this time, a lot of good men think the tide might actually be turning.
