For the first time in three years, the secondary watch market has shown real signs of life. According to new data from WatchCharts and Morgan Stanley, prices for pre-owned timepieces climbed 1.9% in the final quarter of 2025, marking the first widespread increase since the market began its long slide back in 2022.
The uptick affected watches across the board. Out of 35 brands tracked in the analysis, 21 posted gains between October and December. Everything from TAG Heuer to Vacheron Constantin saw prices edge higher, along with names like Longines and Blancpain. It's a welcome change for anyone who's watched their collection's value shrink over the past few years.
But before anyone breaks out the champagne, it's worth looking at what's really driving these numbers.
The Big Three Still Run the Show
While the broad market improved, the real action remains concentrated at the top. Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet—the so-called "Big Three" of watchmaking—continue to dominate the secondary market in ways that other brands can only dream about.
Patek Philippe led the pack with a 7.6% jump in the fourth quarter. The Geneva watchmaker's Aquanaut, Nautilus, and its newer Cubitus models all saw strong price movement. Audemars Piguet bounced back with a 1.8% gain after some rough patches, while Rolex held steady without posting gains or losses.
These three brands share something that sets them apart from nearly everyone else: they're still trading above their retail prices on the secondary market. Walk into an authorized dealer, and you probably won't find the watch you want in stock. Buy one pre-owned, and you'll likely pay a premium over what the sticker price would be—if you could actually find one new.
For everyone else, it's a different story entirely.
Most Brands Still Trading at Steep Discounts
Here's where things get uncomfortable for the majority of watchmakers. While Richemont, Swatch Group, and LVMH brands did see some price improvements, they're still trading at significant discounts to retail.
The Morgan Stanley report shows that most brands are going for 30% or more below their retail prices on the secondary market. That means a watch that costs $10,000 new might only fetch $7,000 or less when sold pre-owned. For collectors and enthusiasts who bought at retail, that's a tough pill to swallow.
Among the publicly-traded group brands, Cartier did the best, rising 2.3% in the quarter. TAG Heuer, owned by LVMH, managed a 1.1% increase. Longines, part of the Swatch Group, posted an impressive 4.9% gain. Tudor, which operates under the Rolex umbrella, saw a 3.9% rise thanks largely to its Black Bay collection.
These are decent numbers on their own, but they pale in comparison to what's happening at the luxury market's peak. And more importantly, they haven't done much to solve the value retention problem that's plaguing the industry.
Retail Price Hikes Complicate the Picture
Part of what's propping up secondary market prices has nothing to do with increased demand. Watch brands have been aggressive about raising retail prices, particularly in January when several major names announced hikes.
Retail prices jumped an average of 7% at the start of the year. Rolex and Audemars Piguet both implemented increases, citing factors like the strong Swiss franc and the soaring cost of gold, which is essential for producing high-end watches.
When retail prices go up but secondary market prices don't keep pace, value retention gets worse. The analysts at Morgan Stanley pointed out something important in their report: "For mid-level brands, secondary performance increasingly reflects consumers prioritizing value amid rising retail prices, and may signal foregone retail sales, rather than incremental brand equity."
Translation: people are buying used because new is getting too expensive, not because they're more excited about the brand. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement.
What the Numbers Really Mean
Investment analysts pay attention to the secondary market because it tells them things that sales figures alone can't. At somewhere between $20 billion and $25 billion in annual volume, the pre-owned market is still smaller than retail sales of new watches. But it's growing fast.
Oliver Müller from LuxeConsult, who contributes to Morgan Stanley's watch market reports, has predicted that secondary sales could overtake primary retail within the next decade. If that happens, it would fundamentally reshape how the industry operates.
The WatchCharts Overall Market Index, which follows 300 watches from 10 major brands weighted by their actual transaction values in US dollars, tells the story clearly. After dropping 10.7% in 2023 and another 6.1% in 2024, the index finally posted a gain of 4.9% for 2025.
That sounds encouraging until you break it down by quarters. The first half of the year was basically flat. Things picked up with a 2.3% gain in the third quarter, followed by the 1.9% increase in the final three months of the year.
And who drove those gains? Almost entirely the Big Three, plus Omega (up 2.4% year-over-year) and Cartier (up 3.4% year-over-year). Patek Philippe led annual performance with a 12.1% increase, while Rolex gained 4.6%.
Meanwhile, 28 of the 35 tracked brands saw their prices decline over the full year.
The Only Brand That Won Twice
Looking at both quarterly and annual performance, only one brand managed to post gains in both timeframes: Rolex. It's a testament to the Crown's unique position in the market.
Rolex has somehow managed to create a situation where demand consistently outstrips supply, authorized dealers rarely have stock, and the secondary market treats its watches like liquid assets. It's not uncommon to see people refer to certain Rolex models as "wrist investments," though whether that's wise financial planning is another question entirely.
What Rolex has that others don't is a combination of brand recognition, controlled production, and decades of cultivating an image of exclusivity without tipping into pure unattainability. You can't walk in and buy a Submariner or Daytona on a whim, but you also don't need to be a billionaire or have special connections with the brand to eventually get one.
Shifting Market Dynamics
The Morgan Stanley analysts noted something interesting about where the market is heading. They believe secondary demand will stay healthy through 2026, with price improvements spreading to more brands.
But they also emphasized that the market has fundamentally changed. It's less about speculation and more about practical buying decisions. Transaction volumes are increasing, which indicates genuine demand rather than people flipping watches for quick profits.
This shift makes sense given everything that's happened over the past few years. The speculative bubble that formed during and immediately after the pandemic has deflated. The days of buying a popular sports watch and immediately selling it for a 50% premium are mostly over, except for a handful of models from the most exclusive brands.
What's emerging instead is a market where savvy buyers look for value on the secondary market, especially as retail prices keep climbing. Why pay full price for a new watch that you know will be worth 30% less the moment you walk out of the store? For many people, buying pre-owned from a reputable dealer makes more financial sense.
The Road Ahead
The watch industry finds itself in an interesting position. On one hand, the secondary market stabilizing is good news. It suggests that the worst of the correction might be over, at least for now. Brands can breathe a little easier knowing that prices aren't in freefall anymore.
On the other hand, the value retention problem remains serious for most manufacturers. When your product loses a third of its value immediately after purchase, that's going to affect consumer psychology and buying decisions over time.
The brands at the top will probably be fine. Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet have built such strong positions that they seem almost immune to broader market pressures. Their waiting lists remain long, their products remain desirable, and their secondary market prices remain strong.
For everyone else, the challenge is figuring out how to build real brand equity that translates into value retention. Raising retail prices might improve short-term profitability, but it doesn't solve the underlying problem if those higher prices just mean bigger discounts on the secondary market.
The data suggests the market is finding a new equilibrium after years of volatility. Whether that equilibrium works for everyone involved—brands, retailers, and buyers—remains to be seen. But after three years of watching values decline, at least things are finally moving in the right direction.
For anyone who's been sitting on the sidelines waiting for signs of life in the market, this might be it. The question now is whether these gains can hold, or if they're just a temporary reprieve before another leg down. Only time will tell, which is somehow fitting for an industry built entirely around measuring it.
