The 2025 Bass Pro Tour season is set to close with Toyota Stage 7 Presented by Ranger Boats on the vast waters of Saginaw Bay and the Saginaw River. It’s a fittingly dramatic stage for an ending—more than 700,000 acres of Lake Huron’s bay, plus a 22-mile stretch of river, all ready to test the best anglers in the sport. The stakes are as high as they get: a $150,000 payday for the event winner, the coveted red trophy, Angler of the Year honors, REDCREST 2026 qualification, and requalification for the tour itself.
But this finale comes with an unusual twist. It’s the biggest venue of the season, and perhaps the most unpredictable. Conditions, rules, and water levels are different from the last time the Bass Pro Tour visited in 2023, meaning even experienced competitors are forced to rethink their playbooks.
The Big Water Puzzle
BPT rookie Colby Miller summed up the challenge simply: “So much water and so little time.” With just two days of official practice, figuring out how to cover this sprawling fishery is no easy task. The bay offers both shallow cover crawling with largemouth and wide-open outer waters where smallmouth roam. The river adds yet another dimension.
In 2023, Matt Becker took the win and the Angler of the Year crown by targeting smallmouth in the final rounds, while Jesse Wiggins cashed in on shallow-water largemouth for a third-place finish. That event was under a five-fish limit, though. Now, every scorable bass counts toward an angler’s total, changing the risk-reward equation entirely.
Becker admits he’d lean heavily on smallmouth if the five-fish format remained, but with the current rules, he believes largemouth will factor more. Wiggins, ironically, predicts the opposite—that smallmouth will have a bigger role this year. The truth may lie in a blend of both species.
Largemouth or Smallmouth?
Largemouth were the dominant catch in 2023, making up over 80% of all scorable bass. They can be caught reliably around shallow vegetation, docks, and reeds—a style of power fishing that tends to produce steady action. Smallmouth, on the other hand, are less predictable but generally run bigger on average.
The bay’s water level is about six inches lower this year, closing off some of the shallow grassy flats that largemouth frequent. That could give a slight edge to anglers in aluminum boats, like Keith Poche and Keith Carson, who can sneak into tighter spots. Lower water also opens up more areas for smallmouth in the outer bay. Miller and Wiggins both reported finding strong smallmouth bites in practice, though consistently catching them without forward-facing sonar may be tricky.
Given all that, the smart money might be on a “combo pattern”—spending part of the day targeting smallmouth with drop-shots and jighead minnows, then switching to baitcasters and braided line for largemouth in shallow cover.
Wind, Water, and Time Management
On Saginaw Bay, wind is more than an inconvenience—it can make or break an angler’s plan. In 2023, strong storms wrecked Kevin VanDam’s offshore smallmouth bite during the Championship Round, ending his shot at a farewell victory. This year, the forecast calls for increasing winds as the event progresses, particularly from the south. That could create rough water in the bay and even drop water levels further by pushing it into Lake Huron proper.
Miller’s plan is to load up on smallmouth early if Day 1 conditions allow, then pivot to largemouth on Day 2 if the wind becomes too rough. Wiggins is hoping to find both species in close proximity so he doesn’t waste precious time traveling between spots. Some anglers may even take advantage of the trailering rule, pulling their boats out mid-day, driving to a new launch, and relaunching closer to their next target zone.
The Offshore Wild Card
One last angle to watch is the offshore largemouth bite. While most largemouth in 2023 came from visible shallow cover, some anglers found success over submerged grass beds. These areas are harder to locate, but Becker believes they could be a game-changer this year. Lower water might concentrate these fish in deeper grass or hard cover, and if an angler finds such a spot without competition, it could carry them through the tournament.
What It Might Take to Win
With so many moving parts—species choice, wind, water level, and travel time—it’s hard to guess the winning formula. Becker thinks it could take between 80 and 100 pounds over the first two days to make the Knockout Round, meaning daily weights in the 40–50 pound range. That’s a lot of bass, and there’s a chance Saginaw Bay could set a new high mark for cut weight this season.
From start to finish, this event promises a mix of big-water strategy, gut calls, and sheer adaptability. Anglers will be forced to balance risk and reward, manage time against weather, and decide whether to chase the steady largemouth bite or gamble on the bigger smallmouth. For fans, it’s shaping up to be a classic ending—where every cast, every fish, and every decision could define not just a tournament, but an entire season.
