Swiss Watch Exports Surge 11.2% in June 2026 — The Industry's First Real Breath of Fresh Air in Two Years
For the better part of two years, the Swiss watch industry has been grinding through a prolonged correction — one defined by softening Chinese demand, a punishing strong franc, tariff uncertainty, and grey-market prices that collapsed from their pandemic-era peaks. June 2026 didn't erase those problems. But it did something arguably more important: it delivered a number that the industry hasn't seen in a long time — unambiguous, broad-based growth. For the month of June 2026, the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FHS) indicated that Swiss watch exports increased by almost 11.2%, to nearly 2.4 billion francs — marking the second consecutive month of recovery, following two years of decline in 2024 and 2025.
The report landed the same week that both Swatch Group and Richemont posted positive results of their own, and the timing wasn't lost on anyone watching the industry closely. Swatch Group reported an increase of +8.5% at constant rates, which followed almost identical signs reported by Richemont roughly a week earlier — +8% for Specialist Watchmakers and +20% in total, with growth mostly driven by Jewellery brands. Three separate data points, from three different vantage points, all pointing in the same direction. That's the kind of convergence that makes investors, retailers, and collectors sit up and take notice.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Volume Grows Alongside Value
What makes June's figure particularly credible is that the growth wasn't purely a function of rising prices or favorable currency comparisons. In terms of volume, the number of timepieces sold showed a similar increase of 11.7%, reaching 1.3 million units. Value and volume moving in lockstep is a healthier sign than value rising while unit counts stagnate — the latter scenario can simply reflect premiumization or inflation rather than genuine demand recovery. June showed both. Exports grew in volume year-over-year, with 162,000 more units shipped in the first half of 2026, an increase of 2.3%.
Much of that volume lift came from an unlikely segment. The FHS said most of the volume growth came from mechanical watches with an export price below 500 francs, which were up 23.8%. That's a signal worth unpacking. Entry-level mechanical watches — the Swatches, the Tissots, the Hamiltons — aren't usually what drives headlines in the watch press. But they are the gateway product that keeps new buyers engaged, and a 23.8% surge in that segment suggests fresh consumers are entering the ecosystem, not just seasoned collectors reshuffling their wrists.
Materials and Categories: Bimetallic Steals the Show
The increase observed in June spanned all major watch categories, starting with wristwatches — which account for the bulk of the sector's activity — rising by 11.7% to 2.284 billion Swiss francs. Timepieces made of precious metals recorded a 2.9% increase, reaching 846.9 million Swiss francs, while steel watches rose by 5%, reaching 735.9 million Swiss francs.
But the material category that genuinely shocked analysts was bimetallic — watches combining steel and precious metal in their cases and bracelets. The strongest performance came from bimetallic models, whose exports surged by 42.1% to 453.3 million Swiss francs. Watches made from other metals also saw strong growth of 22.9%, reaching 150.3 million Swiss francs. The FHS didn't leave the bimetallic spike unexplained. The federation noted that "due to the currently high price of gold, the unit price of such watches has rapidly grown," which contributed to the outsized value increase in that category. In other words, gold's elevated spot price is inflating the average value of every two-tone Rolex Datejust or Audemars Piguet Royal Oak that ships out of Geneva. The volume story and the price story are both real — but they're doing different things at different price points.
Price Segment Breakdown: Where the Money Is Moving
The FHS data slices the market cleanly by export price, and the results are revealing. Watches costing less than CHF 200 showed a 9.9% increase in value, the CHF 200–500 range saw a rise of 54.1%, the CHF 500–3,000 segment recorded a fall of 4.7%, while the over-CHF 3,000 segment saw an increase of 14.2%. The dip in the mid-range CHF 500–3,000 band is notable — this is the arena dominated by brands like Longines, TAG Heuer, and Breitling, where competition from high-quality Asian alternatives is most acute. The high end, meanwhile, continues to show resilience, which tracks with what Richemont's specialist watchmakers division has been reporting.
Market-by-Market: America Leads, France Confounds, China Disappears
The United States — The World's Most Important Watch Market Right Now
If there's a single geography driving the recovery narrative in June, it's the United States. The FHS's monthly report showed that the United States posted one of the highest increases in June, at 12.7%. Growth in the United States stands out at +12.7% to CHF 349 million. For American watch buyers, this reflects something real: there's genuine appetite for Swiss timepieces in the U.S. right now, and that appetite is showing up at the wholesale export level before it even reaches boutique floors.
The U.S. market's resilience is all the more striking given how turbulent the political backdrop has been. The U.S. is Switzerland's leading foreign market for watches, accounting for 16.8% of exports worth about 4.4 billion francs. That dominance has made the U.S.-Switzerland trade relationship particularly fraught in the age of tariff brinkmanship. For the first six months of 2026, Swiss watch exports to the United States declined 14.8% from the same period last year — though the FHS noted "a very high basis for comparison," since exports to the U.S. had soared 150% in April 2025 following President Trump's announcement of tariffs. Collectors and retailers had front-loaded orders before the tariff walls went up, creating a statistical cliff that made 2026's first half look weaker than it actually was in organic terms. The FHS noted that "performance over two years (+2.6% compared with 2024) is positive, confirming the robustness of the U.S. market."
The ongoing tariff uncertainty hangs over the industry like a cloud that refuses to fully dissipate. The FHS noted in its first-half update that "the level of uncertainty remains particularly high both in the Middle East and in relation to future tariffs that the U.S. government may impose on Switzerland." With Switzerland currently facing the prospect of a 39% U.S. tariff on its exports, the stakes for watch brands could not be higher. "The impact of the US tariffs, if they stay at 39 per cent, could be devastating for numerous brands in Switzerland," said Jean-Philippe Bertschy, an analyst at Vontobel. The fact that the U.S. market still posted a 12.7% gain in June despite this backdrop speaks to the brand loyalty and pricing power that the top Swiss houses have cultivated over decades.
France's Mysterious 103% Surge
The number that drew raised eyebrows in the June report was France. A surprising second in the ranking was France, which posted exports up by a whopping 103%, now accounting for 10% of total Swiss watch exports. At first glance, that figure looks like a sign of a booming French luxury market. It isn't. France saw a surge of +103.5%, but this reflects the fact that it is being used as a transit hub, from which goods can move tariff-free to Italy, Spain, Germany, and other EU countries, rather than a sign of increased domestic demand. The FHS itself acknowledged that "results in France remain broadly unrepresentative of actual demand in this market." Brands and distributors are routing shipments through France as a logistical workaround to the complex tariff environment affecting intra-European trade flows. It's a savvy supply chain maneuver, but it flatters France's numbers while obscuring the real picture in markets like Italy and Germany.
Other Strong Performers
Other markets with strong results for June were the U.K. (up 12.2% year-over-year), the United Arab Emirates (20.4%), Japan (8.8%), Hong Kong (6.9%), and Singapore (6.7%). The UAE's 20.4% jump is particularly interesting — the Gulf market has quietly become one of the world's most dynamic luxury watch hubs, fueled by a young, affluent consumer base and zero import duties. The U.K. number at 12.2% also suggests that post-Brexit duty dynamics and the strength of London's watch retail ecosystem are still working in Switzerland's favor.
China: The Ghost at the Feast
The most conspicuous absence in June's top-six market rankings was China. China was not mentioned as part of the top six markets for June 2026. Sales were actually down in China by 16.5%, alongside declines in Germany (-10.6%) and Italy (-21.4%). China's absence from the growth story is the single biggest variable that the industry continues to wrestle with. The single most important external variable for both Richemont and Swatch is Chinese demand recovery — or the continued absence of it. Chinese consumers drove Swiss watch export growth for the better part of a decade, and their retreat from the market since 2022 has been the dominant factor behind the correction in export volumes.
That said, there are tentative reasons for cautious optimism on the China front. Secondary prices appear to be picking up, with the WatchCharts/Morgan Stanley Q4 2025 Watch Market Report noting that for the full year 2025, secondary prices rose 4.9%, marking a meaningful recovery from declines of 6.1% in 2024 and 10.7% in 2023. Secondary market prices are one of the most sensitive leading indicators in the watch world — when gray market premiums on Rolex Submariners and Patek Philippe Nautiluses start climbing, it's typically a signal that primary demand is warming up.
The Difficult Road That Led Here
Two Years of Consecutive Decline
To fully appreciate what June's 11.2% figure means, you have to sit with the weight of the two years that preceded it. The month marks the second consecutive month of rapid recovery, following two years of decline in 2024 and 2025 for exports of Swiss watches. The industry entered this correction after an extraordinary post-pandemic boom that saw grey market prices for the most sought-after references balloon to ludicrous levels and waiting lists stretch years into the future. That bubble deflated painfully. As of April 2026, Swiss watch exports had fallen across consecutive months as the post-pandemic grey market bubble deflated — with secondary prices on key Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet references collapsing from their 2022 peaks.
The year 2026 itself has been anything but a smooth recovery trajectory. The year has been far from steady for Swiss watch exports, following a first quarter barely better than flat (+1.4% for exports), with the FHS then reporting a strong decline over the month of April 2026. June therefore saw substantial growth following May's slight rebound (+0.4%) and a very difficult April (-16.6%). April's collapse was in large part a statistical consequence of the extraordinary surge in U.S.-bound shipments in April 2025 as brands and distributors front-loaded inventory ahead of anticipated tariffs — making April 2026's year-over-year comparison almost impossible to flatter.
The Watches & Wonders Effect
One underappreciated factor in May and June's resurgence may be Switzerland's largest annual watch fair. Potentially as a consequence of the new models released at Watches & Wonders 2026 now being delivered to boutiques and retailers all over the world, exports of Swiss watches have seen a notable positive scenario in May and June of this year. Watches & Wonders — held in Geneva every spring — is the industry's biggest product launch event, and the pipeline from announcement to retailer delivery typically runs two to four months. That timeline places the June export surge squarely in the window when fresh references from Rolex, Patek Philippe, IWC, Jaeger-LeCoultre, and dozens of others would be leaving Swiss manufacturing facilities and heading to retail partners worldwide.
What the First Half Really Looks Like
Despite June's strong number, it would be a mistake to read the first-half-of-2026 scorecard as a clean recovery story. Over the first six months, the overall picture remains weak. Swiss watch exports actually fell — again on a year-on-year basis — by 0.7% in value to CHF 12.8 billion. June's surge was powerful enough to drag a deteriorating cumulative figure back to near-flat, but it couldn't fully erase the damage done by Q1's tepid performance and April's sharp drop. "This positive momentum has kept cumulative performance for the last six months on an almost even keel, at 12.8 billion francs, a dip of 0.7%," the FHS stated.
The forward-looking commentary from the FHS was measured rather than triumphant. Swiss watch exports were up 11.2% overall in June, continuing 2026's "positive momentum," according to the FHS, which said the market should remain stable despite potential political and economic bumps to come. "Forecasts for 2026 as a whole point to relatively stable performance compared with 2025," the federation noted. Stable isn't the same as surging. After two years of consecutive annual declines, the industry would take stable — but the June number has raised the question of whether something more durable is beginning to form.
What It Means for Collectors and Buyers
Grey Market Dynamics Are Shifting
For the American watch collector, June's export figures carry real-world implications that go well beyond the balance sheets of Geneva's major houses. The post-pandemic era of grotesque grey market premiums — where a steel Rolex Daytona or a Patek Philippe 5711 commanded multiples of retail — has given way to a more normalized market. That normalization has been painful for people who bought at peak prices in 2021 and 2022, but it represents an opportunity for buyers who've been waiting on the sidelines. The WatchCharts/Morgan Stanley Q4 2025 report notes that secondary prices rose 4.9% for the full year 2025, marking a meaningful recovery from declines of 6.1% in 2024 and 10.7% in 2023. Secondary prices are recovering from the correction floor, not collapsed to new lows — which suggests the window for buying at discounted grey market prices may be narrowing.
The Entry-Level Mechanical Renaissance
The outsized volume growth in watches priced below CHF 500 is a story that deserves more attention than the trade press typically gives it. Most of the volume growth in the first half of 2026 came from mechanical watches with an export price below 500 francs, which were up 23.8%. This is the segment where brands like Tissot, Seiko's Swiss-branded offerings, Hamilton, and the core Swatch lineup operate. For guys who are new to mechanical watchmaking — curious about the craft but not yet ready to commit to a five-figure timepiece — this data suggests the market is actively welcoming them. Availability is improving. Prices, for the moment, remain relatively rational. And the breadth of genuinely excellent movements in this price bracket has never been wider.
Tariff Risk: The Variable No One Can Fully Price In
Any honest assessment of the Swiss watch industry's near-term outlook has to reckon with tariff risk. Analysts at Vontobel warned that they "expect a strong negative impact for watches in the entry- to mid-price segments" if the 39% U.S. tariff on Swiss imports remains in force. Swatch, which generated 18% of its 2024 sales in the United States, has already raised prices by 5% following the first tariff announcement in April. That price increase gets passed on to American consumers. If the full 39% rate is eventually applied and the brands absorb some portion of it through thinner margins, the mid-range segment — already the weakest performer in June's export data — could see the most acute pressure.
The luxury tier is better insulated. Buyers of CHF 20,000 Vacheron Constantins or CHF 30,000 Patek Philippe references are not especially price-sensitive, and Richemont's brands have already demonstrated an ability to maintain demand through a period of significant macro uncertainty. "Geopolitical, macroeconomic, and commercial constraints have played a significant role in the results achieved in the industry," the FHS's six-month report noted — diplomatic phrasing for a genuinely treacherous operating environment.
The Bigger Picture: Is This Recovery Real?
The honest answer is: probably yes, but with significant asterisks. The convergence of positive signals — Richemont up, Swatch up, FHS exports up — is too consistent to dismiss as noise. The Swiss watch industry enters this recovery from a position of fundamental strength, backed by centuries of accumulated expertise and a proven ability to adapt to changing market conditions. No industry that has survived the quartz crisis of the 1970s and the financial crisis of 2008 should be counted out on the basis of a two-year export correction.
The structural headwinds are real but not fatal. China's consumer remains subdued but not absent. The trend for India continues to confirm the rapid expansion of luxury in that country, with exports up 8.9% for the year, after increasing by 25.2% in 2024. India is emerging as a credible replacement growth driver that the industry has been cultivating for years. The UAE's 20.4% jump in June reinforces the Gulf as another high-quality demand source. And the U.S. — America — remains, by a wide margin, the most important single market in the world for Swiss horology.
June 2026 won't be remembered as the month the Swiss watch industry declared victory. But it will likely be remembered as the month the recovery became impossible to ignore. After two years of headlines about declining exports, layoffs, short-time working, and grey market corrections, a clean double-digit gain across both value and volume, spanning nearly every material category and most of the world's major markets, is a meaningful shift in momentum. Whether that momentum can be sustained through the second half of 2026 — against a backdrop of unresolved tariff negotiations, a still-cautious Chinese consumer, and a strong Swiss franc — is the question that will define how this industry closes out the year.
