For generations, the morning routine for millions of Americans looked pretty much the same: roll out of bed, start a pot of drip coffee, and get on with the day. Maybe grab a cold brew on the way to the office. Simple. Reliable. Cheap enough that nobody thought twice about it.
That era appears to be winding down.
New data from Toast, the restaurant technology company that processes transactions at roughly 164,000 locations across the United States, shows a clear and measurable shift in what Americans are actually ordering when they walk up to a counter. The numbers, pulled from same-store sales between January 2024 and December 2025, tell a story that might surprise anyone who considers themselves a coffee traditionalist.
The everyday staples are losing ground. The premium stuff is gaining it. And canned energy drinks — not exactly the romantic vision of American coffee culture — are leading the entire pack.
The Old Guard Is Slipping
Hot drip coffee, the drink that built the diner industry and kept office workers functional for decades, saw sales fall 3.3% in 2025 compared to the year before. Cold brew, which had spent the better part of a decade being the cool younger sibling of the coffee world, dropped 2.2%.
Those aren't catastrophic numbers on their own, but the trend doesn't stop there. Black tea fell 3.4%. Green tea took the biggest hit of any category, sliding 4.9%. Regular soda dipped 2.3%. Even frappés and cappuccinos, which sit a notch above basic drip coffee in terms of effort and price, declined slightly — frappés down 0.6% and cappuccinos down 0.4%.
What this adds up to is a broad retreat from the drinks Americans have leaned on for years. The everyday, uncomplicated caffeine delivery systems are losing customers.
So Where Are People Going Instead?
The answer is a little counterintuitive, and it points in two very different directions at the same time.
On one end, Americans are reaching for cans. Energy drink sales jumped 8.7% in 2025, making it the fastest-growing category in the entire analysis. Diet sodas weren't far behind at 7.4% growth. These are not drinks you need a barista for. They're grab-and-go, shelf-stable, and increasingly available at every gas station, grocery store, and corner shop in the country.
Herbal teas also surged, growing 8.6% — suggesting that a meaningful slice of consumers isn't just switching their caffeine source but stepping away from caffeine altogether.
On the other end of the spectrum, something more upscale is happening. Barista-crafted espresso drinks, the kind that require a trained hand, a serious machine, and a few minutes of actual craft, are all up. Lattes grew 4.0%. Espresso shots climbed 3.3%. Americanos increased 1.4%. Macchiatos edged up 0.6%.
These two trends — convenience cans on one side, artisan espresso drinks on the other — might seem like they're pulling in opposite directions. But they actually make a kind of sense when you put them in context.
The Price Squeeze Is Real, and It's Changing Behavior
Coffee has gotten expensive. That's not news to anyone who's stood in a grocery store aisle recently or winced at a café receipt. A combination of climate pressures affecting crop yields, rising input costs, and the general overhead of running any food service business has pushed prices up across the board. Whether you're buying beans at the store or ordering a drink at the counter, you're paying more than you were a few years ago.
That pressure appears to be reshaping how people make their coffee decisions.
For the everyday cup — the drip coffee, the cold brew someone could reasonably make at home or pick up cheaply — price sensitivity is higher. If a cup of basic drip at a restaurant is getting more expensive while a perfectly decent option sits in the home coffee maker, it becomes easier to just brew it yourself. The same logic applies to cold brew, which has become a staple of home refrigerators and grocery store ready-to-drink sections.
But the handcrafted drinks? Those are harder to replicate at home. While home espresso machines have become more accessible in recent years, a quality setup still represents a significant investment, requires counter space, and demands a real learning curve. Pulling a proper espresso shot, frothing milk to the right texture, and building a latte that tastes like it came from a serious café takes practice. Most people don't have the time or inclination to develop that skill, which makes the café version feel like something worth paying for.
The "Treat Yourself" Effect
There's another layer to this worth considering. The data may be capturing a shift in how people think about going to a coffee shop in the first place.
A few years ago, daily café visits were routine for a lot of Americans. The regular morning stop at the local coffee place was just part of the schedule. As prices have gone up — both in cafés and everywhere else in daily life — some people have pulled back on how often they go out for coffee at all.
But when they do go? They're not settling for a plain drip. If someone is making the deliberate decision to visit a café, they're more likely to make it count. Order the latte. Get the espresso drink they actually want. Treat it as a moment rather than a transaction.
This phenomenon — spending less often but spending more meaningfully when you do — shows up in other consumer categories too. It's a rational response to a tighter budget. Skip the routine $3 drip coffee you could make at home, but don't skip the $6 latte that's genuinely better than anything coming out of your kitchen.
The numbers back this up. Premium, skill-dependent drinks are the ones growing. Basic, easy-to-replicate drinks are the ones falling.
The Energy Drink Factor
The 8.7% surge in energy drink sales deserves its own conversation, because it represents something beyond just a coffee alternative.
Energy drinks have moved well past their original market — they're no longer just for college students pulling all-nighters or construction workers looking for a midday boost. The category has exploded into mainstream American life, with brands expanding into lower-sugar, cleaner-label products that appeal to a much broader demographic.
For a lot of people, an energy drink offers something drip coffee doesn't: convenience, consistency, and a specific, predictable caffeine experience. You crack the can, you know exactly what you're getting. There's no brewing, no waiting, no equipment. From a pure efficiency standpoint, it's hard to argue with.
The 7.4% rise in diet soda is a related signal. These are cold, canned, immediately accessible drinks that scratch the caffeine-plus-flavor itch without requiring any kind of production. In a world where time feels increasingly scarce, that simplicity carries real value.
What the Tipping Numbers Add
The Toast data also included a look at tipping behavior across full-service and quick-service restaurants in the fourth quarter of 2025. Full-service restaurant tips held at 19.2% and quick-service restaurant tips at 15.8%.
Geographically, Delaware held its position at the top of the tipping rankings with an average tip of 21.8%, while California remained at the bottom at 17.2%.
These numbers are worth noting alongside the drink trend data. Tipping stability in a period of rising prices suggests that customers who are still going out haven't pulled back dramatically on generosity — they're just being more selective about what they order and where they spend their money in the first place.
Reading the Shift
Taken together, the picture that emerges from this data is one of a country reassessing its relationship with coffee. The automatic, habitual purchase — the drip coffee ordered out of routine, the cold brew grabbed without much thought — is losing its grip. Americans are making more deliberate choices.
Some are moving toward convenience and efficiency, grabbing a can instead of waiting in line for something that'll taste roughly the same. Others are going the opposite direction entirely, treating a café visit as a genuine experience worth paying for and ordering accordingly.
What seems to be fading is the middle ground: the ordinary, neither-here-nor-there cup of coffee that's not special enough to justify the price but not convenient enough to compete with a cold can from the store.
For the coffee industry, that's a meaningful signal. The market for basic isn't disappearing overnight, but it's clearly under pressure. The growth is at the edges — in the drinks that either require craft or eliminate it entirely.
Whether that trend holds through 2026 will depend partly on prices, partly on habit, and partly on whether Americans keep deciding that if they're going to spend the money, they'd rather have something worth talking about.
